Tag Archives: Russia

Why Oil Is A Broken Market Ripe For A Short

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Posted by in Commentary, Macro Analysis

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Summary:

  • Oil is trading at a premium based on historical data points.
  • U.S. supply is beginning to come online again.
  • Increased oil demand Oil for energy demand in the EU is likely only temporary.
  • Global recession risk is rising.
  • The Iran deal is likely to close.

For some time now, I have believed the oil market to be broken, where data is ignored and outdated core beliefs of the market rule. I first took action on this belief on March 15, 2022, when I initiated a short position in WTI crude (CL1:COM) using WisdomTree WTI Oil 3x Short Daily ETP in USD ($3OIS) through a margin product. I have since sized up my position on 13 separate occasions. I don’t usually disclose my position in such detail, but I believe such a controversial issue must be read with disclosures in mind.

Before diving in, I need to clarify that this article will focus on WTI crude prices, and any reference to oil price uses the price of crude.

For ease of reading, this article will be broken into seven separate points:

  1. Oil is trading at a premium based on historical data points
  2. U.S. supply is beginning to come online again
  3. Global recession risk is rising
  4. Increased oil demand for energy in the EU is likely only temporary
  5. The Iran deal is likely to close
  6. Russian oil is still flowing
  7. Conclusion and risks to thesis
Click here to read the rest on Seeking Alpha

Excel Source Documents

  1. 01-04-1985_to_08-05-2022_Weekly_Analysis_of_U.S._Crude_Oil_Stockpile_Days_Versus_Futures_Price.xlsx
  2. 1972_-_2021_Oil_Production_v_consumption_v_population_v_median_annual_price.xlsx
  3. 1983_to_08-08-2022_Weekly_U.S._Field_Production_of_Crude_Oil.xlsx

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of CL1:COM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.

Additional disclosure: While I express my opinion in this article, only you can determine if a specific strategy is right for your portfolio. You should always do your own research before buying, selling, or shorting any stock. Any charts, graphs, or tables not specifically credited to another individual, company, or institution were created by the author using his own research.

While I am not directly shorting crude oil, I have invested in a 3x reverse daily ETF using a margin like product that enables me to profit when crude oil decreases in price. This is an incredibly risky method of investing even experienced investors should think hard before initiating.

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Daily News Breakdown 1/28/2016

28 Thursday Jan 2016

Posted by in Daily News Breakdown

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  • Daily Market Update
    • The Dow ended the day up 125.18 points or approximately 0.79%.
    • The S&P 500 ended the day up 10.41 points or approximately 0.55%.
    • The NASDAQ ended the day up 38.51 points or approximately 0.86%.
    • Oil ended the day up $0.92 at $33.22 a barrel.
    • Gold ended the day down $0.20 at $1,114.70.
  • Additional News

Saudi Arabia Did Not Propose 5% Production Cuts:

Earlier today Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak announced that Saudi Arabia had suggested production cuts by each OPEC member of approximately 5%.  Due to these claims oil spiked at the beginning of the trading day however, due to conflicting reports from the Saudis oil gains slowed but still ended the day up $0.92 as hopes of a OPEC reduction deal remained strong.  For more information click here

Chart Credit Bloomberg.com

Chart Credit Bloomberg.com

Iran Dives Back Into the International Marketplace:

Iran’s President recently signed an outline order with Airbus Group for a total of 118 jetliners as well as an accord with PSA Peugeot Citroen regarding the modernization of a car plant in Tehran.  The total price tag, according to Bloomberg calculations, was approximately $33 billion.  Iran’s central bank estimates that the lifting of international sanctions will result in approximately $50 billion a year in foreign investments.

Recommended further readings:

Amazon earnings: $1 per share, vs expected EPS of $1.56 (CNBC)

Xerox to split, Icahn to get 3 board seats at one of them: DJ (CNBC)

Fed to Stress-Test 33 Banks on Severe Global Recession Response (Bloomberg)

Daily News Breakdown 1/26/2016

26 Tuesday Jan 2016

Posted by in Daily News Breakdown

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  • Daily Market Update
    • The Dow ended the day up 282.01 points or approximately 1.78%.
    • The S&P 500 ended the day up 26.55 points or approximately 1.41%.
    • The NASDAQ ended the day up 49.18 points or approximately 1.09%.
    • Oil ended the day up $1.11 at $31.45 a barrel.
    • Gold ended the day up $14.90 at $1,120.20.
  • Additional News

API Weekly Report:

The American Petroleum Institute reported today that crude supplies increased by 11.4 million barrels for the week of January 22, 2016.  Tomorrow the more significant EIA report will be released.  Meanwhile, as shown above, the price of oil still ended the day up $1.11 a barrel.

China Oil Demand:

Today state-run China National Petroleum Corporation announced their forecast for China’s oil demand growth for 2016.  The forecast cut demand growth from 4.8% last year to 4.3% for 2016.  CNPC also forecasted China’s net crude imports to grow by 7.3% compared to last years growth of approximately 9%.

Conflict in the Middle East:

Today Syrian government forces recaptured a “strategically important” town in southern Syria.  Syrian’s government forces have made significant gains during the recent weeks as Russian airstrikes continue to destroy their opposition.  As President Assad’s government continues to further entrench itself with military victories and the West and its allies remain steadfast in their demands for President Assad to step down the future of Syria remains frighteningly in the shadows.  For more information click here

Escalating US and Russian Tensions:

The Kremlin has officially demanded proof from the US Treasury after Adam Szubin, a US Treasury sanctions official, made an on the record comment to the BBC accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of being corrupt.  While the United States has put sanctions on a number of Russian officials in the past the United States government has never gone so far as to place sanctions on President Putin himself.  For more information click here

Recommended further readings:

More bad news from investor who called $30 oil a year ago (CNBC)

Daily News Breakdown 8/18/2015

18 Tuesday Aug 2015

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  • Daily Market Update
    • The Dow ended the day down 33.84 points or approximately 0.19%.
    • The S&P 500 ended the day down 5.52 points or approximately 0.26%.
    • The NASDAQ ended the day down 32.35 points or approximately 0.64%.
    • Oil ended the day up $0.75 at $42.62 a barrel.
    • Gold ended the day down $1.50 at $1,116.90.
  • Russia Agrees to Sell Air Defense to Iran

As soon as next week Iran plans to sign a contract with Russia for four S-300 Surface-to-air systems.  In the emerging cold war between the West on one side and Russia and China on the other; this sale is clearly an attempt by Russia to gain a political ally in the Middle East as Iran continues to gain a dominate political foothold in the region.

  • Test Vote Proves Positive for Merkel

In a test vote by German Chancellor Merkel results showed a majority in favor of the current bailout proposal.

  • Islamic Climate Declaration

In a move certainly to irritate Saudi Arabia a collation of Arab religious leaders have called on oil rich Arab countries to stop oil production and to move 100% to renewable energy by 2050.  The declaration has already received support from the Grand Muftis of Uganda and Lebanon.  Along side the recent G-7 declaration this is further proof of the coming end of oil dominance in favor of renewable energy.